The Polish TSL sector in the face of the slowdown of the German economy

The forecasts for Germany for 2025 are less optimistic than expected, which raises concerns among Polish carriers and exporters. How does the current macroeconomic situation of our western neighbour affect the Polish transport, forwarding and logistics (TSL) sector?

Germany as Poland’s main trading partner

Germany remains Poland’s most important trading partner, which is of great importance for the TSL industry. In 2024, exports to Germany amounted to EUR 94.8 billion, down 3.9% compared to the previous year. Germany’s share in Polish exports also decreased, reaching 27% (GUS data).

The second year of recession in Germany

The Federal Statistical Office in Wiesbaden noted that German GDP fell by 0.2% in 2024, after previously contracting by 0.3% in 2023. This is the first such situation since 2002-2003. Although the forecasts for the EU point to moderate growth (1.5% for the EU as a whole and 1.3% for the eurozone), the German government has lowered its forecast for domestic GDP growth for 2025 to just 0.3%. In addition, German exports are expected to fall by 1% in both 2024 and 2025.

Reasons for the stagnation of the German economy

1. High energy costs – after rising gas prices, German industry is struggling with higher costs that limit its competitiveness.
2. Falling exports – Germany is losing market its share in the automotive and machinery industries to China.
3. Lack of investment – insufficient expenditure on infrastructure, education and digitization.
4. Bureaucracy and demography – Complex administrative procedures and an ageing population hinder economic development.
5. U.S. customs policy – Donald Trump may impose additional tariffs on EU products, which will threaten the German automotive industry.

Effects on the Polish TSL sector

Reduced demand in Germany is reducing the number of transport orders. Many companies, both Polish and German, are struggling with financial problems and are reducing their transport fleets. Since December 2023, German tolls have increased by 86%, reaching 35.4 euro cents per kilometre for 40-tonne combinations, which puts an additional burden on Polish companies.

The weaker German economy reduces the demand for Polish goods, especially in the automotive, chemical and furniture sectors. The increase in the number of bankruptcies of German companies (by 24.3% in 2024) raises the risk of delays in payments for Polish carriers.

New regulations in German and Polish transport companies

• tolls – from July 2024, the German toll covered vehicles over 3.5 tonnes;
• tachograph inspections – from December 2024, inspections include data from 56 days instead of 28;
• cargo safety – new regulations for car transporters have been in force since September 2024;
• zero-emission vehicles – exempt from tolls until the end of 2025, but from 2026 they will cover 25% of the standard rate.

The result of the elections in Germany (the victory of the CDU/CSU, an increase in support for the AfD) may affect further economic policy and regulations in the transport sector.

Challenges and opportunities for Polish carriers

Transport companies must adapt to harsher conditions by:

• diversification of markets – avoiding dependence on Germany by expanding into other markets;
• cost optimization – digitization of processes and investments in low-emission fleet;
• increasing the flexibility of services – partial transport and specialized transport.

Industry experts believe that German companies, looking for savings, may choose Polish suppliers more often. This is an opportunity for Polish exports in the household appliances, food and metal sectors, which may increase demand for transport services.

The current economic slowdown in Germany is a challenge for Polish transport companies, but skilful adaptation to new conditions may open up new opportunities for them. Flexibility, innovation and the ability to respond to market changes will be of the greatest importance for the future of our domestic TSL sector.

Source: TC Law Firm