Article

The Polish economy and critical dependencies on imports

28.03.2025

According to the latest analysis by the Polish Economic Institute (PIE), in 2023 Poland imported 321 categories of goods that can be considered crucial for the functioning of the economy. Although most of them came from the European Union, the United Kingdom and Norway, some import dependencies came from non-European markets. In the face of global tensions and growing threats to supply chains, identifying these dependencies has become increasingly important.

Poland, like other EU countries, strives to secure supplies of strategic raw materials and technologies. To this end, the European Commission has developed  the External Vulnerability Index(EXVI), which allows  the assessment of the level of vulnerability of economies to foreign trade disruptions.

The External Vulnerability Index (EXVI) – a tool for analysing security of supplies

Critical analysis of international trade dependencies requires precise tools. In response to these needs, the European Commission has developed the EXVI indicator, which assesses:

• the degree of dependence on foreign suppliers,
• the competitive position of a given country on the global market,
• disruption to key supply chains.

This indicator takes values from 0 (low susceptibility) to 1 (high susceptibility). PIE analyses indicate that in Polish imports, the highest EXVI values were recorded in the biotechnology sector (0.27), as well as in the pharmaceutical, clean-tech, space and defence industries (0.21-0.24).

What products are of strategic importance for Poland?

According to the PIE report, in 2023, as much as 2.2 percent of the value of Polish imports came from commodity categories considered strategic.

The largest share of these products (1.6 percent) came from European Union countries, the United Kingdom and Norway. However, 0.6 percent of the value of imports depended on suppliers outside Europe, including China and the United States.

The most important product groups with a high EXVI index indicated by PIE include:

• LCD display modules and distillation plants – mainly imported from China;
• nickel alloys and components for the aerospace industry – key suppliers are the United States;
• biotechnological products – a sector in which Poland is particularly exposed to import dependencies.

Key sectors in the PIE analysis

The Polish Economic Institute points out that the greatest risk related to critical dependencies concerns the following sectors:

• biotechnology (bio-tech) – the EXVI index was 0.27, and critical relationships apply to 46 commodity categories. In most cases, the main suppliers are EU countries and the UK, but some of the products come from China and India.
• medical, pharmaceutical, clean-tech, space and defence sectors – the EXVI value ranges from 0.21 to 0.24.

Some of the products indicated by PIE as key for Polish imports are:

• solar water heaters – important for the energy transition;
• distillation and rectification installations – crucial for the chemical sector;
• specialized components for the aerospace and defense sector – of great importance for the country’s security.

How Poland secures its interests?

Poland, following the recommendations of the European Commission, is taking steps to increase the stability of supplies. Key ways include:

• diversification of suppliers – looking for alternative sources of raw materials and products to reduce the risk of over-dependence on one country.
• strengthening domestic production – investing in strategic sectors of the economy to become independent of foreign suppliers.
• dependency monitoring – using analytical tools such as EXVI to assess risk and predict potential problems in supply chains.

Global challenges and trade policy

PIE emphasizes that in recent years, global crises – from pandemics to geopolitical tension – have shown how important it is to take care of economic security. Shortages of semiconductors, problems with the supply of medicines or disruptions in maritime transport have affected  prices and availability of many products.

Industrial and trade policies aimed at strengthening the resilience of the economy are therefore playing an increasingly important role. Poland actively participates in EU initiatives, such as  the European Chips Act (support for semiconductor production) or  the Critical Raw Materials Act (securing access to critical raw materials).

Identification of critical dependencies and strategic action taken by Poland and the European Union allow for effective strengthening of economic resilience. In the face of the challenges posed by global trade, regular risk monitoring and appropriate trade policies are essential to ensure stable development.