Article

08.08.2025

The growing importance of Kazakhstan in Polish trade

Located at the crossroads of Europe and Asia, Kazakhstan is an increasingly important link in the global trade and investment chain. The dynamic economic development of the country, rich in raw material resources, together with its location on the route of the New Silk Road, make Kazakhstan gain importance as Poland’s trading partner in Central Asia.

More and more Polish companies see Kazakhstan not only as a market, but also as a gateway to the wider Eurasian region.

Polish exports to Kazakhstan

According to  the Polish Economic Institute’s (PIE) Economic Weekly’s, in 2024 the export of goods from Poland to Kazakhstan reached the value of about USD 964.2 million. Despite a 25.3 percent decline compared to the previous year, the final data may turn out to be more optimistic, approaching the USD 1 billion mark.

Value of exports from Poland to Kazakhstan and forecast for 2024-2029 (in USD billions)

Source: PIE’s own study based on Trade.gov.pl data

Agri-food products play a special role in the export structure, with sales worth of USD 143.2 million. The ongoing negotiations between Warsaw and Astana are aimed at removing barriers in this sector, which may have a significant impact on increasing Polish exports. An important element of the talks is also the ban on the transit of goods through Kazakhstan to other countries in the region, which makes it difficult for Polish exporters to access wider markets in Central Asia.

Forecasts for 2024-2029 indicate that the fastest nominal growth will be recorded by exports of Polish bread, sweet baked goods and confectionery.

Wealth of raw materials on the route of the New Silk Road

The driving force of Kazakhstan’s economy remains its rich natural resources: oil, natural gas and uranium. The production of the latter means that Kazakhstan maintains its position as a world leader, accounting for 39 percent of global production in 2023. These resources not only strengthen the mining and metallurgical sectors, but also form the basis of the country’s exports and investment attractiveness.

The geographical location of the country, which lies at the intersection of important trade routes between Europe and Asia, is also of great importance. The State Authorities are investing in the modernization of  the transport infrastructure to make even more effective use of this logistics potential.

To attract foreign investors, the government of Kazakhstan has implemented a number of economic and administrative reforms. Among them, it is worth mentioning the introduction in 2017, of the New Tax Code, the creation of Special Economic Zones and the establishment of institutions such as the Astana International Financial Centre (AIFC), which acts as the financial hub of the region.

Stable growth and challenges for Kazakhstan’s economy

The forecasts of the International Monetary Fund point to optimistic economic prospects for Kazakhstan. By 2030, nominal GDP is expected to grow to USD 425.9 billion, which will translate into an average annual growth of 6.9 per cent.

Growth will be supported by growing domestic demand, including higher incomes of the population and the availability of consumer loans, which will also activate the growth of imported products, which may create opportunities for Polish exporters.

Source: Tygodnik Gospodarczy PIE, July 2025