Record exports of Polish grain in 2023

The weather conditions in the 2023/2024 season were unusual. A warm autumn and February, spring frosts and water shortage affected the course of the harvest. According to preliminary estimates by the Central Statistical Office (GUS), the harvest of basic grain in Poland in 2024 will amount to 25.6 million tons. This is 4 percent less than in 2023, when 26.5 million tons were harvested. The wheat harvest is expected to amount to 12.3 million tonnes, which is 6 percent less than a year earlier. In the face of these difficulties, it will be crucial to maintain a high level of exports. In 2023, it amounted to a record 13.7 million tons.

Situation on the Polish grain market

Grain prices in Poland in the period from July 29 to August 4, 2024 were much lower than in previous years. According to the Integrated Agricultural Market Information System (ZSRIR) of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, compared to 2023, prices fell by 10-52 percent. Compared to 2021 they dropped on average of 14 percent. Consumer wheat costs an average of 850 PLN/ton, while feed corn cost 884 PLN/ton. Farmers are increasingly choosing to store their crops, hoping for better prices in the future.

Grain exports

In 2023, Poland exported a record 13.7 million tons of grain. This was an increase of 50 percent compared to the previous year. From January to May 2024, almost 5 million tons of grain have already been exported. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, which presented the results, the forecasted high production will force the maintenance of this pace of exports in order to balance the market.

Transit of grain from Ukraine

Iin July 2024, the transit of grain (wheat, corn, rapeseed) from Ukraine through Poland amounted to about 160,000  tons. So far, there have been no alarming trends in this area. The situation is stable, which is favourable for both Polish farmers and the internal market.

Global and European grain markets

According to forecasts by the International Grains Council (IGC), global cereal production could reach a record 2,320.9 million tonnes in 2024/2025. This means an increase of 21.7 million tons compared to the previous season. However, cereal consumption will exceed production, which will cause a decrease in stocks to 586 million tons.

In the European Union, the forecast production of cereals is 271.6 million tonnes. This means an increase of 0.6 per cent compared to last year. The common wheat harvest is expected to be 120.8 million tonnes, down 3.8% from 2023 (data from the European Commission’s report). The largest declines in cereal production are expected in France, Hungary, Romania and Italy.

Challenges for 2024

The Polish grain market is facing challenges related to unusual weather conditions and falling prices. The key element will be to maintain a high level of exports to balance the market. On the other hand, the situation on the global cereal market indicates an increase in production. However, global consumption may exceed supply, which will affect future prices and availability of cereals.

Sources:

• Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development,
• The European Commission,
• Integrated Agricultural Market Information System (ZSRIR) Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, “Grain market – quotations for the period 29.07-04.08.2024”,
• Central Statistical Office, “Preliminary estimate of the main agricultural and horticultural crops in 2023”,
• International Grains Council (IGC), Grain Market Report.