Prospects for the development of Polish e-commerce in 2024-2028

The Polish e-commerce market is developing dynamically despite macroeconomic challenges. The growth of the market is driven by changing consumer habits, the development of m-commerce and growing competition. What are the prospects for Polish e-commerce in the coming years?

The Polish e-commerce market has been undergoing dynamic changes for several years, which are driving its development. Despite the economic slowdown and inflationary pressure, forecasts for the coming years show further growth. The Strategy& report entitled “E-commerce in Poland: competition and rising expectations drive development” presents both the difficulties and opportunities of the sector.

The Polish e-commerce market in the face of macroeconomic challenges

The Polish e-commerce market, like other sectors of the economy, has not remained unmoved by global macroeconomic challenges. The increase in inflation and the general economic slowdown in 2023 have reduced the levels of sales growth compared to previous years. Consumers have become more price-sensitive, which has forced many companies to adjust their pricing and promotional strategies. Despite these difficulties, e-commerce in Poland still has great growth potential, with forecasts predicting that its value could reach PLN 192 billion (EUR 44.6 billion) by 2028, which means an average annual growth of 8%. For comparison, the growth of the entire retail market in Poland is expected at the level of 6 percent per year.

Competition and changing consumer habits

One of the main drivers of the growth of the Polish e-commerce market is growing competition and changing consumer habits. More and more Poles are choosing to shop online, which prompts retailers to invest in new technologies and improve the shopping experience. The growth of the number of e-commerce users is slow, but the frequency of purchases and the value of the cart are increasing. Between 2020 and 2023, the number of online purchases grew by an average of 5% per year, and the average basket value increased from PLN 233 (EUR 54) in 2020 to PLN 304 (EUR 70) in 2023. This trend suggests that the market is maturing, and consumers are increasingly receptive to new product categories that were previously less popular for online sales.

The development of m-commerce and e-grocery

The Strategy& report indicates that one of the fastest growing segments in Polish e-commerce is m-commerce. Mobile shopping is gaining popularity, and forecasts suggest that by 2028, m-commerce may take over 50 percent of the value of e-commerce sales in Poland. The increase in the share of m-commerce is expected at the level of 2 percentage points per year. At the same time, the e-grocery sector, although currently accounting for a small percentage of the total market, has great growth potential. Although it currently accounts for PLN 4 billion (EUR 930 million) of market value, forecasts for 2028 predict an increase to PLN 14 billion (EUR 3.2 billion). This growth will be driven by investments from large players and the growing popularity of boxed diets.

The Polish e-commerce market responds to customer needs

Polish e-commerce is facing a number of challenges that may affect its development in the coming years. One of them is to provide an excellent customer experience (CX). Consumers expect a seamless, personalized shopping experience, which means businesses need to invest in technology that enables them to meet those expectations. In addition, increasing competition forces sellers to constantly optimize and innovate their business models. In 2024, as many as 80 percent of experts declared increased investments in the area of UX/UI, automation, and AI, which proves how important it is to adapt to customer needs.

Investments in new technologies

The development of technology plays a key role in Polish e-commerce. The use of artificial intelligence to personalize offers and automate processes is becoming a standard. Companies are investing in dedicated mobile apps that offer a better user experience and enable more complete tracking of consumer behaviour. Dedicated mobile applications can increase conversion by 20-30 percent compared to websites. This type of investment is necessary if we want to be competitive and meet the growing expectations of customers.

Polish e-commerce has promising growth prospects, despite macroeconomic challenges and growing competition. Changing consumer habits, the development of m-commerce and e-grocery, and investments in new technologies will be key drivers of the sector’s growth.

Source: Strategy& – “E-commerce in Poland: competition and rising expectations drive growth”