Polish furniture exports are gaining momentum – Credit Agricole report

According to the Daily Mail’s report published in September 2025. “Prospects for activity in the furniture industry are improving” prepared by Credit Agricole as part of the Tygodnik Ekonomiczny – MAKROmapa series, the Polish furniture industry is entering a phase of clear recovery after several years of disruptions related to the pandemic and the war in Ukraine. The analysis shows that the dynamics of Polish furniture exports is expected to accelerate significantly in the coming two years.

The report presents a comprehensive diagnosis of the sector, covering both foreign and domestic demand, with particular emphasis on the growing role of international sales in the development of the Polish furniture industry.

Strong dependence on exports

The furniture industry in Poland remains extremely oriented towards external markets. In 2024, foreign sales accounted for 64 percent of the sector’s total revenues, and in large companies (over 250 employees) this indicator was even higher – 71 percent.

This means that the condition of the Polish furniture industry is strictly dependent on the demand on European markets. Even with the growing importance of the domestic market, exports remain the main lever for the industry’s growth.

Main markets for Polish furniture

According to the report, Germany remains the largest recipient of Polish furniture, accounting for as much as 35.1 percent of the value of exports in 2024. The next places are occupied by: France – 7.6 per cent, the Netherlands – 7.1 per cent, the Czech Republic – 4.4 per cent.

This structure confirms the dominant role of the German market, which is definitely ahead of other customers. As a consequence, any changes in the economic situation of our western neighbour have a serious impact on the situation of Polish exporters.

Optimistic forecasts for the industry

The report indicates that after a very weak 2024, when the dynamics of Polish furniture exports amounted to only 0.1 percent., there is a chance that the following years will bring a clear rebound:

1. 2025 – forecast +4.1 per cent,
2. 2026 – forecast +6.2 per cent.

Factors behind the optimistic forecasts

The most important of them is the German economy – the largest market for Polish manufacturers. The recovery in sales will be possible thanks to the expected recovery in the German economy, in which after a GDP decline of -0.2 percent in 2024.Growth  of 0.1 percent in 2025 and 1.2 percent is forecast.  in the next one. An additional factor supporting demand will be the launch of  a fiscal package in Germany to stimulate consumption and investment, including demand for durable goods such as furniture.

It should be particularly emphasized that every acceleration or deceleration across the Oder River is immediately reflected in the sales statistics of Polish furniture.

Seasonality is also important. Polish manufacturers know very well that the best sales results fall at the end of the year, when consumers in the West invest in home furnishings and prepare for Christmas. Spring and early summer, on the other hand, are traditionally a period of slowdown.

Economists also point to the so-called pandemic effect – the years 2020-2021, full of disruptions and unnatural fluctuations, were excluded from forecasting models. Thanks to this, forecasts better reflect the long-term foundations of the industry’s development.

The domestic market – a silent ally of the industry

Although the strength of the Polish furniture industry is still determined by exports, the report reminds that the domestic market is also playing an increasingly important role. This is especially evident in retail sales in specialized furniture stores.

Domestic demand will be supported by several phenomena in the coming years. Firstly, the further development of the construction industry – each new apartment or house is a natural impulse to buy furniture. Secondly, easier access to consumer credit, which will make it easier for households to finance larger purchases. Thirdly, growing consumer confidence – better and better moods translate into bolder purchasing decisions.

Against this background, the exchange rate will also be an additional factor supporting sales. The temporary depreciation of the zloty against the euro forecast for 2025 (to 4.28) will make exports even more competitive, and domestic furniture prices may go up slightly. In 2026, however, the zloty is expected to strengthen (to 4.24), which will stabilize the situation.

Risks and challenges

The biggest threat to the Polish furniture industry remains competition from China, which is the world’s largest exporter of furniture. However, as highlighted in the report, China’s share in the EU market has been stable for years and there are currently no signals indicating its growth.

Source: Credit Agricole, Tygodnik Ekonomiczny – MACROmap “Prospects for activity in the furniture industry are improving”

Translated by IDC

JL