Polish exports return to growth

Polish exports were recovering in a stable manner in 2025, although growth dynamics remain moderate. The economic recovery in Europe, especially in Germany, may increase orders in key industrial sectors. However, the challenges for exporters are the strong zloty, growing competition from manufacturers settling in USD and variable sales dynamics.

Estimates of the National Chamber of Commerce

According to the latest estimates of the Polish Chamber of Commerce (KIG), exports in 2025 may reach EUR 341.9 billion, which means an increase of 2.6 percent year-on-year. In 2026, the value of exports is expected to increase to EUR 358.6 billion, i.e. by another 4.9 percent.

October 2025 brought a seasonal peak in the export activity of Polish companies. This is the month of the traditional intensification of deliveries before the end of the year, especially seasonal and Christmas and New Year goods. Exports amounted to EUR 31.917 million, up 6.1% year-on-year and 3.9% year-on-year. Despite the slowdown in dynamics compared to 5.8 percent in September, the outlook – according to the KIG – remains cautiously optimistic.

Growth dynamics according to the National Bank  of Poland {NBP }and the General Statistics Office (GUS)

The annual growth rate of exports decreased to 3.9 percent from 5.8 percent in September, but this decline does not mean a weakening of activity – it is the result of a high base from the third quarter of 2025. The negative dynamics that appeared in previous months (the last one in August 2025) are unlikely to return, although growth will remain moderate.

According to data from the National Bank of Poland, in the first nine months of 2025, exports amounted to EUR 254,556 million, which is 2.4% more than a year earlier. General Statistics Office  data, on the other hand, show an amount of EUR 269,600 million, which corresponds to an increase of 2.6 percent compared to the same period of 2024.

Exchange rates and competitiveness

In October, the zloty strengthened against the EUR by 0.23 percent, reaching 4.2498 EUR/PLN, which means a strengthening of 1.5 percent compared to the same month in 2024.

At the same time, the zloty weakened by 0.50 percent month-on-month, to 3.6497 USD/PLN, but still remained 7.8 percent stronger than a year earlier.

The strengthening of the zloty against the EUR reduces the competitiveness of Polish exporters on the EU market. On the other hand, the decline in the exchange rate against the USD reduces the cost of importing raw materials valued in the US dollar, but at the same time increases the competitive pressure from Asian producers who settle in USD.

Perspectives and forecasts of the National Chamber of Commerce

According to the National Chamber of Commerce, the factors favouring exports in the coming months are: the recovery of the economic situation in the main trading partners, especially in Germany, the process of reindustrialisation and strengthening the resilience of economies, as well as a seasonal increase in orders at the end of the year.

Exports compared to the previous year:

2024: -0.6 per cent, total export  333.3 bn EUR2025: +2.6 per cent, total export  341.9 bn EUR2026: +4.9 per cent, total export  358.6 bn EUR (forecast)

Exports to selected regions in 2025-2026 (forecasts):

• • Germany: +2.2% in 2025, +4.9% in 2026
• • other euro area countries: +3.4% in 2025, +4.6% in 2026
• • non-euro area EU countries: +4.6% in 2025, +5.3% in 2026
• • other developed countries: +4.3% in 2025, +5.5% in 2026
• • Central and Eastern European countries: 7.5% in 2025, +6.0% in 2026
• • developing countries: +1.5% in 2025, +4.0% in 2026

Everything indicates that Polish exports may gradually gain momentum in the coming months. The expected recovery with major trading partners, new opportunities resulting from supply chain tensions and more favourable currency relations may create favourable conditions for Polish companies. A weaker dollar against the euro favours some exporters, reducing the costs of raw materials and components priced in USD with stable sales prices in EUR.

Source: KIG, „Eksport wraca do wzrostów — odbicie stabilne, ale umiarkowane”, December 2025

Translated by IDC

JL