Polish cross-border e-commerce during the customs war 2025

The growing uncertainty in global trade, caused by the growing tension between the US and the EU, is a cause for concern for many companies. However, for Polish companies operating cross-border e-commerce, it can also be a breakthrough moment, an opportunity for dynamic development, diversification of markets and a greater presence on foreign platforms.

Eastern Europe is growing in strength

According to an ECDB (eCommerce Data Analytics) analysis from March 2025, global cross-border e-commerce revenues may exceed $1.2 trillion this year, up 25 percent from 2022. This trend also gives Polish companies a chance. Due to the difficulties in trade with the US and Germany (where the European Commission forecasts zero economic growth this year), entrepreneurs are increasingly turning their attention to the markets of Central and Eastern Europe.

Ebury experts emphasize the growing interest in countries such as Romania, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic and Slovakia. Their advantage is not only lower transport and business costs, but also dynamically growing e-commerce markets. An example is the eMag Platform, which operates in Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria and records sales growth of up to 20-39 percent per year.

According to the “Cross-border from Poland 2024” report (Idosell and GOInternational), Polish online stores are increasingly marking their presence on local marketplaces, as part of the pan – European trend. Already 36 per cent of online shopping in Europe is carried out cross-border.

New America, or the Canadian market with potential

Although the situation in the US remains uncertain, Polish e-commerce companies are not giving up on expanding overseas. They are increasingly choosing Canada, with which the EU is linked by a beneficial trade agreement CETA. Thanks to this, most goods are subject to zero duty rates.

There are nearly 30 million active e-consumers in Canada, and cross-border accounts for over 30 percent of the entire e-commerce market. Although the US remains the dominant partner, Polish entrepreneurs see an opportunity to fill the potential gap in supplies, taking advantage of the high quality and competitiveness of their own products.

The categories of goods with the greatest potential on the Canadian market are:

• electronics,
• hobbies and entertainment,
• fashion.

The Canadian market is growing at a rate of 7.1 per cent per year, and its strength lies in its powerful platforms – 57 per cent of sales are generated by Amazon, Walmart and Costco.

Currencies, Risk & Settlement

Anxiety about the tariff war translates directly into the currency market. Since the beginning of the year, the euro has gained 10 percent against the dollar., which is also reflected in the USD/PLN . The current exchange rate oscillates on the border of export profitability indicated by the NBP.

For e-shops selling abroad, the following are recommended:

• settlements in local currencies, using IBAN numbers assigned to a given market (including virtual ones),
• avoiding currency conversion
•  by sales platforms, exchange rate hedging – e.g. forward contracts, which enable revenue planning without the risk of losing margins (the company can hedge the exchange rate in advance, at which settlement will take place in the future)

Threat or opportunity

The global customs war may be an opportunity for Polish companies operating cross-border e-commerce to strengthen their position in this segment. Entrepreneurs who manage to react quickly, adjust their expansion strategy and diversify their sales directions can benefit. As the experience of Brexit has shown, Polish companies are able to be flexible, properly use the available financial tools and accurately identify markets with high growth potential, which can also be a success for domestic companies operating cross-border e-commerce in times of a customs war.

Source: Business Insider, „Wojna celna 2025. Polskie platformy e-handlu mogą na niej skorzystać”, June 2025