Poland's economic expansion takes on a new dimension

Polish business is entering the next phase of foreign development. The report “New exports, the new role of diplomacy: where Polish companies are heading” shows that domestic companies are increasingly investing abroad, strengthening their presence on global markets. In doing so, they benefit from the  growing support from development institutions and economic diplomacy.

The analysis prepared by CIS Economic Trends in cooperation with KUKE and PFR TFI proves that the temporary slowdown in exports, caused by geopolitical tensions, does not stop the process of internationalization of the Polish economy, but opens a new chapter of it. Polish companies are increasingly boldly entering global markets – from acquisitions to greenfield projects.

The report, prepared on the basis of data from the Central Statistical Office, Eurostat and the National Chamber of Commerce, not only cites detailed figures, but also describes the markets on which Polish companies operate. It indicates the challenges faced by exporters and redefines the understanding of Polish competitiveness in the face of global changes.

Export dynamics in 2024

The year 2024 brought a clear slowdown. The value of Polish exports amounted to EUR 350 billion, which means a decrease of 0.8 percent y/y. This is the first such result since 2009. A further deterioration was observed in the first quarter of 2025. Exports to developed countries amounted to PLN 325 billion, i.e. 2 percent less than a year earlier, and exports to the European Union – PLN 276.6 billion, i.e. 3 percent less than a year earlier.

The markets of Central and Eastern Europe (-13.1%) and Russia (-30.3%) recorded particularly sharp declines, while exports to Ukraine recorded a slight increase (+2.8%).

Polish export markets

Developed countries – primarily the countries of the European Union and the euro zone – remain the main direction of Polish exports. Over 80 percent of our foreign sales go there.

Poland’s largest trading partner in 2023 was Germany, with exports worth about EUR 36 billion, which accounted for more than a quarter of the total. France (€10 billion), Italy (€9 billion) and the Netherlands (€8 billion) came next.

Emerging markets – economies in the growth phase, characterized by high absorption for new investments, but also increased risk – include, among others, countries in Africa, the Middle East and selected Asian countries.

• Exports to China in 2023 amounted to approx. EUR 3.5 billion,
• to the United Arab Emirates – approx. EUR 1.2 billion,
• to Egypt – ok. €0.6 billion.

Central and Eastern Europe (a region that includes, among others, Ukraine, Belarus and the Caucasus countries):

• exports to Ukraine in 2023 amounted to approx. EUR 5.5 billion,
• to Belarus (before sanctions) – approx. EUR 1.5 billion,
• to Georgia and Azerbaijan – less than EUR 0.5 billion each.

In developing markets, Polish companies are increasingly involved in infrastructure projects and greenfield and brownfield investments. The report emphasizes that it is there, that exporters face the most barriers, but at the same time they can gain access to new sectors –  renewable energy or recycling, among others.

The role of exports in the economy

The role of exports of goods and services in Poland’s GDP is decreasing: from 62.4% in 2022 to 57.9% in 2023, and then to 52.3% in 2024. This means that despite the high volume of foreign sales, the Polish economy is becoming more and more dependent on internal factors and less on exports.

The future of Polish exports will depend on the ability of companies to enter emerging markets, where the risk is higher but the potential profits are higher, and on maintaining competitiveness in the most demanding markets of Western Europe and North America. In addition, in the light of EU sanctions and regulations, companies must adapt their expansion strategies to the new legal realities.

Poland’s competitiveness

The term “competitiveness” in the report refers to the ability of Polish companies to compete on global markets – both in terms of price and quality.

In practice, this means that Polish companies are able to offer goods and services at a competitive price thanks to relatively lower production costs, and at the same time develop brands of recognizable quality, as in the case of InPost or the  Elemental Group. Competitiveness is increasingly based on innovation, the ability to take advantage of the green transition and adapt to European and global regulations.

An example is the investments in Romania in the recycling sector, which are in line with the circular economy policy.

Polish expansion in a new dimension

The report clearly shows that Polish economic expansion is entering a stage in which not only numbers and dynamics matter, but also the quality of presence abroad.

More and more companies are going beyond the mere export of goods but are getting their capital involved – creating subsidiaries, making acquisitions and investing in foreign projects. It is important to actively support public institutions and economic diplomacy, which not only secure transactions, but also initiate new projects and open doors to emerging markets.

It is there – in Africa, Asia or the Middle East – that Polish companies can gain advantages thanks to innovation, green transformation and flexibility in adapting to regulations.

The “Made in Poland” brand is also gaining in importance, which is no longer a simple label of the country of origin, and is becoming a symbol of quality, credibility and added value. Polish competitiveness less and less means “cheaper production”, and more and more often the ability to compete in areas requiring technology, innovation and environmental responsibility.

Source: Report „Nowy eksport, nowa rola dyplomacji: dokąd zmierzają polskie firmy”, WNP Economic Trends in cooperation with KUKE and PFR TFI, August 2025

Translated by IDC

JL