Trade war US vs. EU  – losses and gains

The trade war between the US and the EU poses a serious threat to both economies, which are worth $9.5 trillion annually. According to the AmCham report, trade conflicts can affect not only trade in goods, but also investments, which are the foundation of this relationship. Tariffs on steel, aluminium and cars, as well as the EU’s retaliatory plans, could harm interconnected businesses, including supply chains and trade in services.

The United States and Europe are two regions that are characterized by a unique interdependence. Their links cover many areas, such as foreign direct investment (FDI), portfolio investment, trade, affiliate sales of goods and services, as well as digital connections, energy, joint investment in research and development, patent cooperation, technology flows, and trade in knowledge-based services.

Introduction to Trade War

The trade war has a negative impact on economic relations between the United States, the European Union and the United Kingdom. This conflict not only affects trade, but also a wide range of economic sectors of both sides. The American Chamber of Commerce in Brussels concluded that the losses resulting from this competition could total as much as USD 10 trillion.

Losses and Gains

According to experts from the American Chamber of Commerce, the US will suffer greater losses in this trade war. This means that American business will have to face more severe consequences than European companies. However, it is worth noting that both sides will experience negative effects, but it is the American economy, especially large corporations, that may lose more.

Tariff exchanges and trade restrictions affect many industries, such as automotive, agriculture, technology, and consumer goods. For both parties, this means not only financial losses, but also a loss of position in the global supply chain. In 2024, the value of trade in goods between the US and Europe reached a record level of USD 1.3 trillion, of which USD 1.1 trillion was in trade with the EU and the UK. The high level of trade underlines the importance of economic relations between these regions, and any further escalation of the conflict could lead to serious losses for both sides.

The economies of all parties will have to adapt to the new reality. Whoever gains remains open. However, it is worth noting that trade cooperation between China and the European Union could potentially increase due to rising tensions between the US and the EU.

Source: AmCham EU, The Transatlantic Economy 2025, March 2025r.