The year 2024 in economic forecasts

In the report “Great Hopes An Economic Outlook for 2024” published by PKO BP, the bank’s analysts presented 10 main topics – forecasts for the coming year, which will have an impact on the Global and European economy. Among the many interesting predictions, it is worth mentioning those dedicated to Poland and the region of Central and Eastern Europe:

„Is Poland already an export power?”

The expansion of  export, became the main driving force of the Polish economy after joining the EU in 2004. Poland is becoming an increasingly open economy, with the export-to-GDP ratio reaching a record high of 62.9% in 2023, up from around 34% in 2004. The current level of Poland’s export openness  is above the EU average.

Poland has a chance to take advantage of the current changes in global value-added chains. It is indicated as a leading place  for the relocation of activities within the framework of reshoring  (relocation of activities carried out in another country to a country), nearshoring  (relocation of production to a culturally similar country)  and friendshoring (relocation of production to a member state of a common geopolitical bloc). According to PKO BP analysts, “the Polish economy is characterized by competitiveness, solid infrastructure, a large domestic market, openness to the international workforce and a strategically advantageous geographical location.” All this means that in 2024 Poland will strengthen its position as a connecting country in global trade.

“Is Poland still a leader in Central and Eastern Europe?”

PKO BP analysts believe that Poland still has one of the most optimal relations between the strength of economic growth and economic stability among the countries of Central and Eastern Europe. In 2023, Poland once again avoided recession and is rebuilding its economy quickly – in 2024, Poland  may be the leader of growth in the region  (according to PKO BP forecasts, the growth may amount to 3.9% of GDP y/y). This economic recovery should not lead to imbalances – “inflation, wage growth, fiscal deficit do not differ significantly from the region, and the pace of external rebalancing is  the fastest among Central and Eastern European countries,” according to the report.

Source: PKO BP