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Polish’s macroeconomics

Send Print Download added: Anna Mackiewicz | 2015-04-01 11:51:38
poland, macroeconomy, eu

Poland is the 9th biggest economy in the EU and the 23rd biggest economy in the world.

Poland, with a population of over 38.5 million inhabitants, is the largest member of the European Union among all the countries of Central and Eastern Europe. In terms of the number of inhabitants, Poland is the 33th largest country in the world and the 6th largest in the EU (CIA’s The World Factbook, the 2013 estimate). In terms of gross domestic product (GDP), Poland is the 9th biggest economy in the EU and the 23rd biggest economy in the world (2011 GDP in current prices, USD-denominated, IMF, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2013).

 

Poland, main economic indicators:

Category

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

GDP (PLN bn)

925

983

1 060

1 177

1 275

1 344

1 415

1 528

1 595

1 636

Real GDP growth (%)

5.3

3.6

6.2

6.8

5.1

1.8

3.9

4.5

1.9

1.6

FDI inflow
(EUR mn)

10 237

8 330

15 741

17 242

10 128

9 343

10 507

14 896

4 763

-3 859

Unemployment rate (%)

19.0

17.6

14.8

11.2

9.5

12.1

12.3

12.5

13.4

13.4

Exports
(EUR mn)

59 698

71 424

87 926

101 839

116 244

98 218

120 373

136 694

143 456

152 779

Imports
(EUR mn)

71 354

81 170

100 784

120 390

142 448

107 529

134 188

152 568

154 040

155 092

External trade turnover
(EUR mn)

131 052

152 594

188 710

222 229

258 692

205 747

254 561

289 262

297 496

307 871

External trade balance
(EUR mn)

-11 656

-9 746

-12 858

-18 551

-26 204

-9 311

-13 815

-15 874

-10 584

-2 313

CPI (previous year = 100)

103.5

102.1

101.0

102.5

104.2

103.5

102.6

104.3

103.7

100.9

 

 

http://www.paiz.gov.pl/poland_in_figures

 

Unemployment, gross domestic product and inflation

 

The overall unemployment rate in the EU-28 reached 10.8 % in 2013, an increase of 0.4 percentage points compared with 2012. This follows an even larger increase of 0.8 percentage points between 2011 and 2012.

The unemployment rate rose in 18 Member States between 2012 and 2013, dropped in 8 and remained stable in the Czech Republic and Sweden. The highest decreases in the annual average unemployment rates between 2012 and 2013 were recorded in Latvia (-3.1 ppt), Ireland and Lithuania (both -1.6 ppt). The unemployment rate also went down in Estonia, Hungary, Denmark, United Kingdom and Germany. The highest increases were reported in Cyprus (+4.0 ppt), Greece (+3.0 ppt), Italy (+1.5 ppt), the Netherlands (+1.4%), Spain (+1.3 ppt), Croatia (+1.3 ppt) and Slovenia (+1.2 ppt). Increases below one percentage point were reported in Belgium, Bulgaria, France, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Austria, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia and Finland.

Growing faster than its environment, Poland is catching up, in terms of wealth, with Western EU countries. Poland’s GDP per capita in 1995 was 43% of the average of EU countries, in 2000 it was 48%, and in 2011 – already 64%, data from Eurostat indicate.

Strong internal demand and solid private consumption used to be named by economists as strengths of the Polish economy, helping the country to retain its economic growth even in the face of difficult conditions on international markets. The current economic slowdown in Europe, however, has not left the Polish internal market unscathed: while private consumption still grew in 2013 (by 0.8% y/y), the domestic demand actually shrunk by 0.2% y/y and had a negative impact on GDP, according to revised GUS data.

Yet, after a difficult 2013, Polish economy has finally started to rebound. Poland’s retail sales grew by 5,5% y/y in Q1 2014, GUS data show. In December 2013 Polish retail sales grew by 5.8% y/y and 17.3% m/m, according to the Central Statistics Office (GUS). It seems the retail sales have picked up some speed towards the end of the year and have continued to grow this year.

On the labor market front, Poland recorded unemployment rate 9.9% in December 2013, according to seasonally adjusted Eurostat data. The unemployment rate in Poland was gradually declining throughout 2013, starting the year at 10,5% in January, EU stats authority’s data show.

The European Commission, in its February 2014 forecast, assumed that the unemployment rate in Poland – according to Eurostat methodology – will amount to 10.3% on average in 2014, and would decrease to 10.1% in 2015.

Poland’s GDP increased by 3,4% y/y in Q1 2014, according to the updated estimates by GUS published in May 2013. At the same time, domestic demand grew by 3%. These data show an economic recovery when compared with the tough last year, when GDP grew by 1.6% y/y in the entire year and domestic demand dropped by 0.2%.

The GUS and Eurostat data indicate that in terms of 2012 GDP growth rate Poland ranked fourth among 27 EU member states, falling behind Latvia, Lithuania, Malta and the UK. International institutions, among them OECD and European Commission forecast Polish GDP growth to accelerate this year between 2.7% and 3.6% and ca. 3.6% or more in 2015.

Over the recent years, observers have grown accustomed to the Polish economy’s relatively good performance against the backdrop of the region of Central and Eastern Europe as well as the entire European Union. It was particularly visible in 2009, when Polish GDP, according to Eurostat data, grew 1.6%, making Poland the only EU country with a positive economic growth and earning the country the name of the “green island”. It was also in 2010 and 2011 that Polish economy stood out among European peers: the Polish GDP growth of 3.9% in 2010 was the third highest in the EU, while the 4.5% economic growth in 2011 ranked Poland fourth among the 27 member states.

Polish consumer prices edged down by 0.6% y/y in October after a 0.3% y/y decline in the month prior, data from stats office GUS showed.

 

European Commission, PAIiIZ